Polls have failed to predict tectonic shifts before – such as in 1994.
Democrats need to put an early order in for a Rose delivery, not for any Democrat having figured out how to win an election…
But to Mr Beck, Mrs. Palin and the Faux News Tea Party for losing one for the Republicans.
I tend to agree with this analyst – what the fruitcake brigade has done is to stir up some pretty deep seated anger, not only among black and Hispanic folks…
But among moderate white folks. And in the case of Moderate white folks, it isn’t the political positions of the Republican Tea Baggers that’s driving that silent anger – it’s the “in your face” way they have attacked anyone with different ideas. Payback is hell.
Here is the issue though – to seal the deal, Democrats are going to have to convince their own base they are willing to govern. No more of this mincing around begging on bended knee for that one Republican vote. The issue isn’t Afghanistan. The issue is Democrats, despite some big successes – are perceived as having pissed away their mandate. The one thing Republicans do well is the mechanics of governing. Unfortunately they combine that with a disastrous, dysfunctional political platform and belief set.
Maybe I’m wrong.
In fact, maybe I’m really, really wrong, which is the reaction I hear when I dare even to broach this notion to commentators and political strategists in both parties. So let me state it plainly: I now think the Democrats will hold the Congress—yes, the House as well as the Senate—and turn back high profile Republican challengers in California and elsewhere.
The GOP strategy of “no” worked to slow the recovery, stoke fears about fictions like death panels in the health reform bill, and persuade voters to strike out in frustration against Democrats. The trend peaked in August, a month Democrats probably wish they could abolish given the dog days they suffered then, in 2009 as well as 2010.
But with the onset of autumn, there are signs that the Republican tide is receding. Karl Rove would understand – the same dynamic was the key to George W. Bush’s narrow re-election in 2004, when the GOP base showed up to vote in numbers that defied the polling models. This time, it’s the Democratic base that’s stirring—and finally engaging—and the survey research is registering the shift. In the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, the Republican advantage in the ballot for Congress has declined from nine points to three. The explanation: African-Americans and Hispanics are re-entering the likely electorate.
California is a prime example. The GOP covets a comeback in the state that produced Nixon and Reagan before turning a deep navy blue after the party scapegoated immigrants and scorned Hispanics. But Democrat Jerry Brown has pulled ahead of eBay mogul Meg Whitman, who’s bid $119 million and counting for the governorship (and yes, her paid consultants are counting fast and furious). Whitman never managed to open up a real lead even when she had California’s expensive airwaves to herself; now, after immigrant-baiting during the primary, she can’t afford for the electorate to expand. Read the rest of this entry »