The racist right and the Chumph are on the same page…
But they have miscalculated exactly how badly they are outnumbered.
The racist right and the Chumph are on the same page…
But they have miscalculated exactly how badly they are outnumbered.
The crowd protesting the Chumph just in DC is now over 600,000, and possibly could be 800,000!
2,500,000 to 5 million people marched today in over 600 cities in the US and around the world to reject the Chumph’s illegitimate presidency.
Metro reported 470,000 came by the Subway.
More than 470,000 people had taken Metro by 1 p.m., a weekend ridership record. (By 11 a.m. on Inauguration Day, 193,000 trips had been taken.)
The City has about 3,000 parking spaces for buses, including those in close in Northern Virginia (You can walk across the bridges).
A month ago, city officials said they were expecting around 1,500 buses. But as of Tuesday, just 435 charter buses have permits to park on Friday (Inauguration), about half of them in the sea of asphalt around RFK Stadium and the other half in lots and spaces around the city (Only about 250 actually showed up), according to the District’s Department of Transportation. At least a dozen of them are coming to shuttle people to protests organized by DisruptJ20, the ANSWER Coalition, and other groups.
Meanwhile, on Saturday, there a total of 2,066 buses registered to bring rally-goers for the Women’s March on Washington, according to figures collected by DDOT. EventsDC, which is handling permits at RFK for the day, said they filled all 1,200 spots available at the stadium by last Tuesday. WMATA, U Street Parking, and other private companies are also providing parking elsewhere in and around the city.
Predicting crowd sizes is a deeply imperfect science, but buses offer one of the few concrete measurements to gauge participation.
For President Barack Obama’s record-breaking first inauguration, more than 3,000 chartered buses were registered and officials estimated attendance at around 1.8 million people.
At 50 per bus, that means an additional 103,000.
There is no count of the number of people who came in on the “Chinatown” buses which normally operate hourly between DC and NYC, Phila, Boston, Richmond, and Atlanta.
Greyhound is reportedly sold out
Many came in on the Amtrak train Union Station, which is a block from the Capitol Building. Amtrak reported being sold out today.
So the numbers look like 600,000 to 800,000 in DC
Philadelphia had @ 50,000
Seattle @ 120,000
North Texas – @ 100,000
Austin – $@ 50,000
150,000 in London
65,000 in Paris
And most noteworthy –
Looking at the number of bus parking permits applied for (1200), and the hour long waits to get on the suburban DC METRO Subway stations to get into the city…The crowd is shaping up to be 500,000 – 600,000 so far. Two to tree times larger than the Chumph supporter crowd at the coronation yesterday. Metro has not published fare data yet and won’t until tomorrow, but looking at public information on the wait times at various stations indicates this may well be a huge crowd. It is shaping up to be much bigger than the 200,000 forecast.
With protests around the world in other cities, the anticipated number of protesters could well be above 2 million – over 10 times the inauguration’s pitiful crowd.
Crowds protesting the coronation of the illegitimate Trump presidency could exceed 5 million. There are actually over 300 Groups protesting today…Just in DC.
From Washington, DC, to Riyadh, more than 2 million women are set to protest the inauguration of President Donald Trump.
On Saturday, January 21, more than 200,000 women are expected to march in Washington, DC, to protest the inauguration of Donald Trump. The organizerspredict that they’ll be joined by more than 2 million women in more than 600 marches worldwide. Want to find a march near you? Use this tool.
Mother Jones reporters are on the scene at the marches. Check back here for rolling updates.
The line promoted by the polls the last week or so is that the Chumph is closing in on Hillary in the race for President.
Even the famous pollster Nate Silver, upset by what he calls “inaccurate polling systems” is caught up in the fever and has artificially begun balancing polls on what he believes the “real” numbers are – which favor the Chumph by 1 1/2 to 3 points. That “balancing” seemingly is making the polls much closer that they really are.
The big very ugly hole in all of this is the same reason so many polls got President Obama’s election in 2009 and 2012 wrong. If you will remember there were a number of polls out there which showed Romney winning in 2012. Gallup actually had Romney winning.
This autopsy performed by Silver after the election of 2012, showed a heavy bias in the majority polls for the Republican candidate –
That bias really hasn’t changes, nor has it changed to support Hillary.
According to an analysis firm, Targetsmart.com, about 40,000,000 people voted early this year. Among that number…Clinton has a 9 point lead.
The damning fact is this –
In Florida – “turnout among Hispanics is up about 103% from where it was at this point in 2008, according to a CNN analysis of early voting data from Catalist.”
Early, in-person voting numbers among Latinos are “off the charts” in Florida, according to Daniel Smith, a University of Florida political science professor who runs the blog ElectionSmith. So far, 429,000 have voted in person — a 152% surge from this time in 2012.
The Austin American-Statesman reported a 26.6 increase as of last Wednesday over 2012 in early voting by Latinos with Spanish surnames in the state’s 20 biggest counties, based on an analysis by a political consultant and former researcher with the Republican Party of Texas.
Black folks…Not so much. black voter turnout in Florida so far has only been 13% above normal, vs 25% when voting for Obama.
Polls in America don’t count black and brown people.
Guess some of the house Negroes want to go back to being “happy darkies under JIm Crow” or finding out what it was like to be a Jew in Nazi Germany.
Because that is what this election is really about.
Maybe the Mexicans will save your black ass.
Here we go again with the annual battle of the “Crime statistics”…
Some good counters here for the right wing’s race baiting.
Forthcoming FBI statistics will likely reveal a murder uptick in 2015, but it wasn’t caused by Black Lives Matter
It is a fact that murder rates in many cities rose last year. The full nationwide picture, however, will only become clear on Sept. 26, when the FBI publishes its 2015 crime data. As it turns out, that’s the same day as the first presidential debate, as Lois Beckett observed at The Guardian. The data will convey a lot of information, and a fast-moving political circus will likely engulf it in confusion.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, running a hysterical law-and-order campaign, will likely point to a rare fact to bolster his case. Other conservatives, who since last year have blamed urban bloodshed and the murders of police officers on Black Lives Matter, will no doubt claim vindication. But reporters shouldn’t let anyone get away with such quick inferences. The overall murder rate is still way down from the worst years of the early 1990s, and the current spike is being driven by a small number of cities.
A recent New York Times analysis found that the murder rate rose sharply in 25 of the nation’s 100 largest cities, confirming a trend identified in a June report for the National Institute of Justice conducted by criminologist Richard Rosenfeld. Experts estimate that the FBI will report a nationwide increase of between 6 percent and 13 percent, according to Beckett. Numbers, however, don’t speak for themselves.
Many conservatives have been peddling a theory known as the “Ferguson effect,” which posits that Black Lives Matter protests are causing the police to pull back from doing their jobs, leading to increased crime. Such commentators and some credulous reporters will claim that this data proves their case. But the Ferguson effect theory, aimed at delegitimizing the movement against police violence, remains as unsubstantiated and implausible as ever. What follows is a handy guide for fighting politically motivated disinformation in the weeks and months to come.
The Ferguson effect doesn’t make any sense
The Ferguson effect theory, as I wrote in June, doesn’t make sense because it lacks a plausible causal theory as to how so-called de-policing (to the extent that it has taken place) leads to more people shooting one another to death. Much gun violence is the result of personal and intergroup disputes, and purveyors of the theory don’t explain how decreased police enforcement would lead to more shooting. Notably, gun seizures — which criminologist David Kennedy called “the one kind of day-to-day policing that one might expect would have the most direct impact on homicide and gun violence” — have been high in Baltimore and Chicago, two of the bloodiest cities.
In regard to a causal mechanism, Kennedy told me, “none of the people claiming there is a Ferguson effect have any idea” what it might be. “Most of the people behind that have essentially said, ‘Violence is up. People are mad at the police. Therefore people being mad at the police is driving violence up,’ and then left people to challenge them about why that might make sense.”
Kennedy, director of John Jay College of Criminal Justice’s National Network for Safe Communities and a leading gun violence expert, added, “But there isn’t much of a story, and there’s certainly next to nothing in terms of real facts or analysis that says, ‘This is what’s going on in the streets, and these are the ways it’s leading to increased violence.’ It’s really not an analysis. It’s more a position.”
The murder spike is not a nationwide phenomenon
According to the Times, just seven cities— Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, Houston, Milwaukee, Nashville and Washington — were responsible for half of the murder rate increase. In five cities, murder rates actually decreased significantly. In 70, they were mostly stable. The real story is thus embedded in a series of local circumstances and cannot be explained by easy recourse to the national debate over policing.
In Baltimore, for example, the murder rate is particularly out of control. In fact, it’s horrific: Last year’s was the city’s highest rate on record. But as the Times noted, “Some experts attribute the sudden spike in violence largely to a flood of black-market opiates looted from pharmacies during riots in April 2015.” It’s possible that decreased police enforcement played some role. It could also be that the riots caused a lot of young men already involved in gun violence to encounter one another in the streets, leading to more violence. The correlation that researchers have found between decreased enforcement in Chicago and Baltimore and rising murder, as Iexplained at length in June, does not demonstrate causation.
Three of the cities that drove the upsurge — Baltimore, Chicago and Cleveland — have been centers of widespread protests. Yet all seven have poverty rates above the national average. And cities like Baltimore, Chicago and Cleveland also contain something else: large, geographically contiguous segregated concentrations of black poverty. More reporting and research is necessary to discover why murder is spiking in certain cities—and also why it is dropping or holding steady in others.
Murder rates continued to decline in the nation’s two largest cities, Los Angeles and New York. In New York, crime has continued to fall even after it implemented one of the largest de-policing measures in history under massive public and legal pressure: ending mass stop-and-frisk practices. Contrary to the New York Post, the sky did not fall.Beware of headlines that blare, “Murder rate increase highest since 1990.” Beckett wrote that “overall murders would have to spike 73 percent, not 6 percent, to actually put the U.S. back at the record-breaking murder totals of the early 1990s.”
Because murders have declined so much in recent decades and the crime rate is currently so low, a relatively small increase in the absolute number of murders can make for a dramatic percentage increase in the murder rate.
If there is a Ferguson effect, it might not be what you think
Many experts have long believed there is a relationship between policing and gun violence but it’s not the relationship that many people might presume to exist. Instead, a lack of police legitimacy in poor black communities might fuel shootings because when people don’t trust police to solve their problems they are more likely take matters into their own hands. And so rather than protests against police violence causing more gun violence, the protests may instead be highlighting one of the causes behind increased violence.
After University of Missouri St. Louis criminologist Richard Rosenfeld conducted his June research showing rising murder rates in certain cities, he was reported to be having second thoughts about the Ferguson effect, which he initially thought to be implausible. This is not quite right.
In fact, Rosenfeld told me at the time that he is unaware of any research “that suggests de-policing could have such a powerful effect on firearm violence — except maybe if the police all went on strike and stayed home.” Rosenfeld said, “There are two versions of the Ferguson effect. One emphasizes the role of de-policing in the homicide rise. The other, which I favor, suggests that longstanding grievances with the police in minority communities are activated by controversial and heavily publicized incidents of police use of force, resulting in more killings as community members settle grievances or respond to crimes without recourse to the police.”… Read the rest here…
Have had a few discussions over the years about the impact of integrating schools.
The US School System has been in freefall for a number of years – indeed since Raygun. How an entire political class dedicated t hatred of the Public School system and dedicated to destroying Teachers Union could do anything but fail is beyond me. We are about 17th or 18th in the world now behind almost every one of the “socialist” developed nations.
In Philadelphia, the number of black teachers fell 18.5 percent between 2001 and 2012. In Chicago, it dropped 40 percent.
America’s schools desperately need educators like Darlene Lomax. So why are we driving them away?
One spring morning this year, Darlene Lomax was driving to her father’s house in northwest Philadelphia. She took a right onto Germantown Avenue, one of the city’s oldest streets, and pulled up to Germantown High School, a stately brick-and-stone building. Empty whiskey bottles and candy cartons were piled around the benches in the school’s front yard. Posters of the mascot, a green and white bear, had browned and curled. In what was once the teachers’ parking lot, spindly weeds shot up through the concrete. Across the street, above the front door of the also-shuttered Robert Fulton Elementary School, a banner read, “Welcome, President Barack Obama, October 10, 2010.”
It had been almost three years since the Philadelphia school district closed Germantown High, and 35 years since Lomax was a student there. But the sight of the dead building, stretching over an entire city block, still pained her. She looked at her old classroom windows, tinted in greasy brown dust, and thought about Dr. Grabert, the philosophy teacher who pushed her to think critically and consider becoming the first in her family to go to college. She thought of Ms. Stoeckle, the English teacher, whose red-pen corrections and encouraging comments convinced her to enroll in a program for gifted students. Lomax remembers the predominantly black school—she had only one white and one Asian American classmate—as a rigorous place, with college preparatory honors courses and arts and sports programs. Ten years after taking Ms. Stoeckle’s class, Lomax had dropped by Germantown High to tell her that she was planning to become a teacher herself.
A historic Georgian Revival building, Germantown High opened its doors in 1915 as a vocational training ground for the industrial era, with the children of blue-collar European immigrants populating its classrooms. In the late 1950s, the district added a wing to provide capacity for the growing population of a rapidly integrating neighborhood.
By 1972, Lomax’s father, a factory worker, had saved up enough to move his family of eight from a two-bedroom apartment in one of the poorest parts of Philadelphia into a four-bedroom brick house in Germantown. Each month, Darlene and her younger sister would walk 15 blocks to the mortgage company’s gray stucco building, climb up to the second floor, and press a big envelope with money orders into the receptionist’s hand. The new house had a dining room and a living room, sparkling glass doorknobs, French doors that opened into a large sunroom, an herb garden, and a backyard with soft grass and big trees. Darlene and her father planted tomatoes and made salads with the sweet, juicy fruit every Friday, all summer long.
To the Lomax children, the fenceless backyard was ripe for exploration, and it funneled them right to the yards of their neighbors. One yard belonged to two sisters who worked as special-education teachers—the first black people Darlene had met who had college degrees. As Lomax got to know these sisters, she began to think that perhaps her philosophy teacher was right: She, too, could go to college and someday buy a house of her own with glass doorknobs and a garden. She graduated from Rosemont College in 1985, and after a stint as a social worker, she enrolled at Temple University and got her teaching credential.
On February 19, 2013, Lomax was in the weekly faculty leadership meeting at Fairhill Elementary, a 126-year-old school in a historic Puerto Rican neighborhood of Philadelphia where she served as principal. A counselor was giving his report, but Lomax couldn’t hear what he said. She just stared at her computer screen, frozen, as she read a letter from the school superintendent. She read it again and again to make sure she understood what it said.
Then, slowly, she turned to Robert Harris, Fairhill’s special-education teacher for 20 years, and his wife, the counselor and gym teacher. “They are closing our school,” she said quietly. They all broke down weeping. Then they walked to the front of the building in silence and unlocked the doors to open the school for the day.
Five miles away, as Germantown High School prepared for its 100th anniversary, its principal was digesting the same letter. In all, 24 Philadelphia schools would be closed that year. These days, when Lomax visits her father in the house with the glass doorknobs, she drives by four shuttered school buildings, each with a “Property Available for Sale” sign.
Back when Lomax was a student in Philadelphia in the 1970s, local, state, and federal governments poured extra resources into these racially isolated schools—grand, elegant buildings that might look like palaces or city halls—to compensate for a long history of segregation. And they invested in the staff inside those schools, pushing to expand the teaching workforce and bring in more black and Latino teachers with roots in the community. Teaching was an essential path into the middle class, especially for African American women; it was also a nexus of organizing. During the civil rights movement, black educators were leaders in fighting for increased opportunity, including more equitable school funding and a greater voice for communities in running schools and districts.
But today, as buildings like Germantown High stand shuttered, these changes are slowly being rolled back. In Philadelphia and across the country, scores of schools have been closed, radically restructured, or replaced by charter schools. And in the process, the face of the teaching workforce has changed. In one of the most far-reaching consequences of the past decade’s wave of education reform, the nation has lost tens of thousands of experienced black teachers and principals.
According to the Albert Shanker Institute, which is funded in part by the American Federation of Teachers, the number of black educators has declined sharply in some of the largest urban school districts in the nation. In Philadelphia, the number of black teachers declined by 18.5 percent between 2001 and 2012. In Chicago, the black teacher population dropped by nearly 40 percent. And in New Orleans, there was a 62 percent drop in the number of black teachers.
Percentage Change in Teacher Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2002-2012
Many of these departures came as part of mass layoffs and closings in schools…Read More Here…
Big upset last night. Despite the MSM Polls showing Hillary with a huge lead, by the time the votes were counted, the Bern won by a small majority. Even 538 got it wrong, projecting that Hillary had a 90% chance of winning in Michigan. Bernie also chipped into Hillary’s lead in black voters with his best showing so far. The math behind that is fairly simple. Economic issues in an area devastated by loss of jobs mean more to black voters than in the South where some companies have relocated due to cheap labor. As such, folks in the industrial heartland are more likely to resonate with Bernie’s economic platform, than folks living in the Republican red zone South where race is the predominant issue.
Bernie’s speech last night –
The next group of states favor Bernie – so the number of delegates is going to be a lot closer. If Bernie wins in Ohio, then things may well turn on their head. He has at least an outside chance of winning more delegates to the Democrat Convention. The downside for Bernie is Hillary owns the super-delegates, who are made up of party insiders and luminaries. So Hillary still has the inside track.