Hillary is winning the black vote big for two reasons. The first is Bill’s connection with the black community. The second is her style of attending small meetings and gatherings in the community to go eye to eye with the electorate. That person-on-person style worked for Bill…And it is reaping big dividends for her, as voters get to see her up close an personal and get a feel of what she is really about.
Bernie so far, has connected with millennials – but has focused on large rallies.
The difference is shown in the little chart I made up below. Quite simply Hillary wins in states where the black vote is over 12% of the State population. Bernie is winning in states with white populations and few minorities – possibly due to crossover votes from nominal Republicans, which is why polls show that in potential matchups against the remaining Republican candidates show Bernie beating them by bigger margins than Hillary.
This has a lot to do with the Clinton brand, style of politics, and a better staff who understand the intricate details.
Based on this theory, Bernie will likely win (or has won) the following states –
So…It is still a horse race – although Hillary will likely win because of her victories in the big states like Texas and projected wins in California and Florida. A lot is going to depend on how well Bernie does with Hispanic Voters as well.