Statistically, since Raygun 89-92% of black folks have voted Democrat.
It now appears, since “Arizona”, Hispanic voting patterns may mirror that of black folks.
- 68% of Latinos approve of Obama’s job (compared with 48% of overall respondents and 38% of whites)
- They view the Democratic Party favorably by a 54%-21% score (versus 41%-40% among all adults and 34%-48% among whites).
- GOP fav/unfav among Latinos is 22%-44%.
- Latinos think Democrats would do a better job than Republicans in protecting the interests of minorities (by 58%-11%),
- Latinos think Democrats would do a better job than Republicans in representing the opportunity to move up the economic ladder (46%-20%),
- Latinos think Democrats would do a better job than Republicans in dealing with immigration (37%-12%), and
- Latinos think Democrats would do a better job than Republicans in promoting strong moral values (33%-23%).
- The only advantage they gave Republicans was in enforcing security along the border (31%-20%).
*** Dropping like a rock: It didn’t use to be this way. In 2004, George W. Bush, the former governor of Texas, won some 40% of the Latino vote. But in 2006, that percentage for Republicans dropped to 30%, and it was 31% in ’08. And check out these party identification averages among Latinos that our Hart (D)/McInturff (R) pollsters put together from our past NBC/WSJ polls; this chart puts together the YEARLY average of all Hispanics surveyed for each year (approximately 900 respondents are included in each yearly sample):
– In 2004, Dems held a 22-point edge in party identification among Latinos (49%-27%)
– In 2005, it was 24 points (48%-24%)
– In 2006, it was 26 points (50%-22%)
– In 2007, it was 30 points (52%-22%)
– In 2008, it was 35 points (57%-22%)
– In 2009, it was 31 points (50%-19%)
– And so far in 2010, it has been 36 points (58%-22%).
According to Public Policy Polling, this is beginning to have a serious impact on several races in Western States -
When we polled Colorado in early March Michael Bennet and Jane Norton were tied. Last week we found Bennet with a 3 point lead. One of the biggest reasons for that shift? Bennet went from leading Norton by 12 points with Hispanic voters to a 21 point advantage. That large shift in a Democratic direction among Hispanics mirrors what we saw in our Arizona Senate polling last month- Rodney Glassman went from trailing John McCain by 17 points with them in September to now holding a 17 point lead.