The END is Near… Again…

And here I thought the Southwest Native American Tribes were the only ones who consumed Peyote as part of some of their religious rites…

Radio preacher now says Oct. 21 is definitely Doomsday — well, probably

Family Radio Network preacher Harold Camping, whose prediction for the end of the world on May 21 misfired, now says that his new date of Oct. 21 looks like the real thing — well, probably.

“A lot of things we didn’t have quite right will probably be finished out on Oct. 21,” the 90-year-old Camping says in a message on his Family Radio Network website. “That looks like it will be at this point, looks like it will be the final end of everything.”

HEAR:  The latest Doomsday prediction

After the May 21 debacle, Camping initially said he was “flabbergasted,” but then announced that it had in fact been a “spiritual” End of the World, and that would culminate in the finally, final end on Oct. 21, Time reports.

Hundreds, if not thousands, of followers, including many who had left their jobs, had contributed money for billboards warning of the coming Doomsday. The Los Angeles Times reported that the worldwide campaign cost $100 million, including caravans and advertising, and was financed by the sale and swap of TV and radio stations.

Camping, who had also forecast the Rapture to occur in 1988 and 1994, conceded that it had been “a really tough weekend,”The Christian Post notes.

ANOTHER Recession??????

And the whole world walked off a cliff…

Anyone else get the feeling the “experts” don’t have a clue how the economy actually works?

U.S. Economy Tipping into Recession

Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off.

ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading Index, which was the first to turn down – before the Arab Spring and Japanese earthquake – to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading Index and other shorter-leading indexes. In fact, the most reliable forward-looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the cusp of full-blown recessions, not “soft landings.”

Last year, amid the double-dip hysteria, we definitively ruled out an imminent recession based on leading indexes that began to turn up before QE2 was announced. Today, the key is that cyclical weakness is spreading widely from economic indicator to indicator in a telltale recessionary fashion.

Why should ECRI’s recession call be heeded? Perhaps because, as The Economist has noted, we’ve correctly called three recessions without any false alarms in-between. In contrast, most of those who’ve accurately predicted a recession or two have also been guilty of crying wolf – in 2010, 2005, 2003, 1998, 1995, or 1987.

A new recession isn’t simply a statistical event. It’s a vicious cycle that, once started, must run its course. Under certain circumstances, a drop in sales, for instance, lowers production, which results in declining employment and income, which in turn weakens sales further, all the while spreading like wildfire from industry to industry, region to region, and indicator to indicator. That’s what a recession is all about.

But how can we have a new recession just a couple of years after the last one officially ended? Isn’t this too short for an economic expansion?

More than three years ago, before the Lehman debacle, we were already warning of a longstanding pattern of slowing growth: at least since the 1970s, the pace of U.S. growth – especially in GDP and jobs – has been stair-stepping down in successive economic expansions. We expected this pattern to persist in the new economic expansion after the recession ended, and it certainly did. We also pointed out – months before the recession ended – that because the “Great Moderation” of business cycles (from about 1985 to 2007) was now history, the resulting combination of higher cyclical volatility and lower trend growth would virtually dictate an era of more frequent recessions.

So it comes as no surprise to us that, with the latest expansion only a couple of years old, we’re already facing a new recession. Actually, such short expansions are hardly unheard of. From 1799 to 1929, nearly 90% of U.S. expansions lasted three years or less, as did two of the three expansions between 1970 and 1981. In other words, such short expansions are unusual only with respect to recent decades…

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